AGP Executive Report

Agriculture & Water: Ethiopia and Ghana’s presidents inaugurated the Megech irrigation project, which is designed to irrigate 17,000 hectares and supply water to Gondar and nearby towns. Coffee Exports: The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority says more than 99% of coffee farms are deforestation-free, pushing back against concerns that traceability gaps could threaten access to the EU market. Investment: MIDROC has begun building a second Sheraton-branded hotel in Addis Ababa, with the IFC proposing up to $80 million in financing toward a project cost of up to $116 million. Capital Markets: New rules now allow collective investment funds, including mutual funds, money market funds, real estate funds and ETFs, giving savers and institutions new ways to invest. Business Rules: A long-awaited chamber of commerce reform bill is with the Prime Minister’s Office, with approval expected by the end of 2026. Economic Ranking: IMF projections put Ghana slightly ahead of Ethiopia as Africa’s eighth-largest economy in 2026, mainly because of exchange-rate movements, despite Ethiopia’s faster forecast growth.

Digital Trade: Tradplat is seeking an Ethiopian partner to launch a local-currency e-commerce platform, with an international rollout planned for March or April 2027. Agriculture & Infrastructure: Prime Minister Abiy and Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama inaugurated the Megech irrigation project, aimed at expanding reliable water access for farming. Investment: A Sharjah Chamber forum brought 150 Emirati and Ethiopian companies together in Addis Ababa to explore trade and investment ties. Coffee Exports: Ethiopia’s coffee sector faces a reported $453 million risk from EU deforestation rules, adding pressure to exporters to meet new requirements. Regional Trade: At the Tana Forum, leaders urged stronger African trade links and local processing to keep more value from the continent’s resources. Economic Outlook: The IMF says it is too early to assess conflict’s cost to Ethiopia’s economy; talks on the next loan review are expected in early December.

Agriculture & Water: Ethiopia commissioned the Megech irrigation project with Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama. The dam is set to irrigate 17,000 hectares and supply water to Gondar and nearby towns. Pharmaceuticals: India’s Kilitch Drugs will sell its Ethiopian subsidiary to state-owned HarmeeCare Pharmaceuticals for $14 million, while planning a long-term supply and technical-services agreement. Trade & Investment: A Sharjah Chamber forum brought 150 Emirati and Ethiopian companies together in Addis Ababa to explore trade and investment partnerships. Coffee Exports: Ethiopia’s coffee sector faces a potential $453 million risk under EU deforestation rules, according to a recent report title. Economic Outlook: The IMF says it is too early to assess conflict’s economic cost to Ethiopia, with its next loan review talks expected in early December. IMF figures also put Kenya ahead of Ethiopia as East Africa’s largest economy in dollar terms.

Agriculture and Infrastructure: Ethiopia inaugurated the Megech dam near Gondar, built to irrigate more than 17,000 hectares and supply drinking water to the city and nearby towns. Ghana’s President John Mahama said the project had inspired him to revive a stalled irrigation scheme at home. Finance: Dashen Bank and ShebaMiles launched a co-branded Mastercard debit card with travel and loyalty benefits. Energy Investment: Taranis acquired a majority interest in the Corbetti geothermal project, while GCL and Jurong advanced plans for a second phase of Ethiopia’s LNG project. Trade and Investment: A Sharjah–Addis Ababa forum brought together 150 Ethiopian and Emirati companies to explore trade and investment partnerships. Coffee Exports: Ethiopia’s coffee sector faces a potential $453 million risk under EU deforestation rules. Economic Outlook: The IMF says it is too early to assess the cost of conflict to Ethiopia’s economy; talks on the next loan review are expected in early December.

Water and Agriculture: Prime Minister Abiy inaugurated the Megech Dam, which is expected to irrigate more than 17,000 hectares, supply water to Gondar and nearby towns, and create opportunities in farming, fisheries and tourism. IMF Review: The Fund says it is too early to assess how fighting will affect Ethiopia’s economy. Staff are expected in Addis Ababa in early December for talks on the next review of the $3.4 billion loan programme; approval could release a further $200 million. Trade and Investment: A Sharjah Chamber forum brought 150 Emirati and Ethiopian companies together in Addis Ababa to explore trade and investment partnerships. Coffee Exports: Ethiopia’s coffee sector faces a reported $453 million risk under EU deforestation rules, putting export earnings at stake. Regional Standing: IMF figures show Kenya has overtaken Ethiopia as East Africa’s largest economy in dollar terms.

Trade and Investment: A Sharjah business mission brought 10 Emirati companies together with more than 140 Ethiopian representatives in Addis Ababa, signing a cooperation deal between the two chambers to expand trade and investment. Agriculture: Ethiopia is prioritising irrigation, mechanisation and better market systems to boost affordable food and rural jobs; a separate deal will establish avocado processing in Sidama. Energy Logistics: Dangote is building a fuel distribution corridor from Djibouti to Addis Ababa, alongside storage facilities, as it expands across Africa and takes a 25% stake in Kenya’s pipeline network. Economic Outlook: Kenya has edged ahead of Ethiopia in dollar-measured GDP, but the IMF projects Ethiopia’s real economy to grow 9.2% in 2026, versus 4.5% in Kenya; birr depreciation explains much of the ranking shift. Coffee Exports: Ethiopia’s coffee sector faces a reported $453 million risk from EU deforestation rules.

Energy Logistics: Dangote says his group has bought a 25% stake in Kenya’s pipeline network and is developing a fuel-distribution corridor linking Djibouti with Addis Ababa, including storage facilities. Export Risk: Ethiopia’s coffee sector faces a reported $453 million exposure to the EU’s deforestation rules, raising the stakes for exporters and farmers. Regional Trade: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has urged easier trade and travel with Kenya, calling for stronger economic ties. Agro-processing: Sidama Parks Corporation and Basilea have signed a deal to develop avocado processing in Ethiopia. Economic Outlook: IMF projections put Ghana on course to overtake Ethiopia as Africa’s eighth-largest economy in 2026, with GDP forecast at $128.64 billion versus Ethiopia’s $127.15 billion.

Energy & Logistics: Aliko Dangote says his group is expanding fuel distribution across Africa, including plans for infrastructure linking Djibouti and Ethiopia, after acquiring a 25% stake in a Kenyan petroleum pipeline network. Coffee Exports: Ethiopia could lose up to $453 million in coffee revenue under EU deforestation rules if shipments fail traceability and compliance requirements; around four million smallholders produce 95% of the country’s coffee. Capital Markets: Dangote plans to list at least 10% of his Ethiopian fertiliser business, potentially widening local investor access to the venture. Trade Links: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for easier trade and travel between Ethiopia and Kenya, highlighting the potential for closer business ties. Agro-processing: Sidama Parks Corporation and Basilea have signed a deal to develop avocado processing in Ethiopia.

Agro-processing: A new avocado plant at Yirgalem Industrial Park is moving toward implementation, with capacity to process 150 tonnes a day and export up to six containers of products monthly. Its success will depend on securing steady supplies from local growers. Energy: GCL and Jurong have signed a construction and processing contract for the next phase of Ethiopia’s Ogaden LNG project, including storage and transport infrastructure. Regional Trade: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for fewer barriers to trade between Ethiopia and Kenya, while a second shipment of heavy equipment for the planned Dangote refinery arrived at Lamu Port, part of a corridor intended to strengthen regional links. Foreign Exchange: The average bank dollar-buying rate barely moved last week, while the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia raised its rate by 60 cents in three steps. Digital Payments: Ethiopia’s entry into the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System could make cross-border transactions easier as local banks prepare to connect.

Foreign Exchange: The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia raised its dollar buying rate by 60 cents over three steps, narrowing the gap with other banks. Average rates barely moved, while a central-bank auction allocated $140 million against $152.09 million in bids. UAE Investment: Ethiopia and the UAE are courting longer-term ventures in manufacturing, agriculture and other sectors. Bilateral trade totalled $5.6 billion from 2021 to 2025, but Ethiopia imported far more than it exported. An Addis–Sharjah forum aims to build business links and attract investment. Energy: A new agreement with GCL Energy Investment and Jurong Group advances the second phase of the Calub LNG project, including construction and processing. Digital Services: Fayda identity checks have been fee-based for institutions since August; registration remains free for citizens. The fees are intended to cover operating costs, with verified IDs potentially helping banks reduce fraud. Aviation: Airbus forecasts Ethiopian passenger traffic will grow almost sixfold between 2025 and 2045, pointing to rising demand for air connectivity and investment. Regional Risk: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warned Eritrea of “very severe” consequences if it supports Ethiopia’s adversaries, as fighting continues in Tigray.

Housing Finance: A Nigerian $125 million public-private housing model was presented in Addis Ababa to representatives from 36 African countries, with several expressing interest in adapting its approach to private investment and affordable mortgages. Digital Economy: Ethiopian fintech Arifpay and KLIK have partnered to expand digital payments; Ethiopia’s central bank has also joined the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System, paving the way for cross-border services through local banks. Investment: Dangote plans to list at least 10% of his Gode fertilizer venture, with United Capital Ethiopia set to distribute shares locally. Energy: Ethiopian Electric Power is advancing 18 grid projects, while the IMF’s latest nominal GDP estimates put Ethiopia at $127.15 billion—slightly behind Ghana and well below Kenya in the regional rankings.

Digital Payments: Ethiopia’s Arifpay and KLIK signed a partnership to bring POS, QR-code and other electronic payment services to more businesses. The central bank has also joined the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, paving the way for easier cross-border transactions. Investment: Dangote plans to list at least 10% of its Ethiopian fertilizer business, with United Capital Ethiopia named to distribute shares locally; purchases reportedly require a minimum net worth of 10 million birr. Ethiopia and the IFC are also exploring private investment in key sectors, while a Sharjah Chamber trade mission aims to deepen trade and investment ties. Infrastructure: Ethiopian Electric Power is advancing 18 grid projects, including upgrades for industrial parks and a battery-storage system, to improve reliability ahead of COP32. Jobs and Skills: Ethiopia is promoting AI and digital training and private investment in workforce development as it seeks to link skills programmes more closely to employment. Business Risks: Renewed fighting in Tigray and tensions with Eritrea threaten regional stability and could disrupt markets and investment.

Digital Finance: Ethiopia has joined the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System, paving the way for faster cross-border payments as local banks prepare to connect. Telecom: Ethio Telecom named CTO Tariku Demissie interim CEO as it expands into digital services; the operator reported 215.82 billion birr in revenue for 2025/26, up 33.2%. Investment: Dangote plans to list at least 10% of its Ethiopian fertiliser venture on the local exchange once production stabilises. Separately, United Capital Ethiopia will help distribute shares in Dangote’s refinery IPO to qualified local investors. Trade and Aviation: A Sharjah business delegation is in Addis Ababa through October 22 to explore partnerships in manufacturing, agriculture and logistics. Airbus forecasts Ethiopian passenger traffic could grow sixfold over 20 years, creating opportunities for airlines and airport infrastructure. Economic Outlook: IMF officials urged African governments to shield vulnerable households from shocks, warning that rising fertiliser and food costs could deepen food insecurity. IMF estimates put Ethiopia’s 2026 GDP at $127.15 billion, below Kenya’s $151.15 billion, though the underlying figures warrant verification.

Payments and Trade: Ethiopia’s central bank has joined the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, enabling cross-border transactions in local currencies and reducing reliance on dollars and overseas correspondent banks. Investment Links: A Sharjah business delegation arrives in Addis Ababa this week to explore trade and investment opportunities, with a bilateral business forum scheduled for 20 October. Industrial Investment: Aliko Dangote plans to offer local investors at least 10% of his Ethiopian fertiliser venture through the Ethiopian Securities Exchange once production stabilises. The Gode plant is designed to produce three million tonnes of urea a year. Economic Reform: Experts warn that weak implementation could undermine Ethiopia’s market reforms, citing risks to household purchasing power and the need for closer monitoring. Debt: Ethiopia is nearing a eurobond exchange deal, while Fitch has flagged a possible path out of default.

Industrial Investment: Aliko Dangote plans to offer at least 10% of his $4 billion Ethiopian fertiliser venture to local investors through the Ethiopian Securities Exchange once the Gode plant is operating steadily. Designed to produce three million tonnes of urea a year, the project aims to reduce imports and support exports. Debt Restructuring: Ethiopia is nearing a proposed exchange of its defaulted $1 billion Eurobond, with Fitch saying a deal could be completed by year-end if investors approve. The offer would cut principal by 12% and lower the coupon; the country remains in restricted default for now. Growth and Risk: The IMF projects Ethiopia’s economy to grow 9.2% in 2026, but says it is assessing how renewed conflict could affect the country’s $3.4 billion programme. Ethiopia has also pledged to turn development financing into jobs by improving project delivery and institutional capacity. Digital Business: Ethio Telecom has named technology chief Tariku Demissie interim CEO as it expands into digital finance and enterprise services. The operator reported 215.82 billion birr in revenue for 2025/26, up 33.2%. Cross-Border Payments: Ethiopia has joined the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System, with local banks preparing to enable cross-border transactions.

Debt and Finance: Ethiopia is nearing a restructuring deal for its $1 billion Eurobond. The proposal would cut principal by 12% and lower the coupon to 6.15%; Fitch says an exchange could be completed by year-end, though the country remains in restricted default. Investment: Ethiopia and the IFC discussed mobilising private capital for affordable housing, power transmission and agribusiness, as the government seeks to expand private-sector participation. Telecom: Ethio Telecom named technology chief Tariku Demissie interim CEO as it expands into digital finance and enterprise services; revenue rose 33.2% to 215.82 billion birr in 2025/26. Payments: Ethiopia has joined the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, a move toward easier cross-border transactions. Education: Private colleges warn that tighter licensing rules and rising compliance costs could limit investment, enrolment and programme expansion. Banking Alert: Police arrested 37 suspects accused of stealing more than 200 million birr from 658 people through mobile banking scams.