AGP Executive Report

BRICS Summit, Ethiopia in focus: Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed met Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on the BRICS sidelines in New Delhi, discussing digitalization, trade, investment and defense, with talks also touching technology transfer, skills, tourism, minerals and COP32 preparations. BRICS economic agenda: India’s BRICS chairship pushed practical outcomes including local-currency trade settlements to cut transaction costs and ease cross-border payment frictions, alongside calls for WTO dispute-settlement restoration and stronger global trade rules. Global governance & resilience: BRICS leaders adopted the New Delhi Declaration, stressing resilience, innovation and cooperation, warning against weaponising critical minerals and technology, and calling for UN Security Council reform and nuclear-risk prevention. Middle East diplomacy with spillover for trade: Iran and the UAE backed a BRICS joint statement urging restraint, while Xi urged a peace role in West Asia—an effort aimed at stabilizing regional commerce and energy flows. U.S.-Ethiopia trade push: A U.S. Assistant Secretary visited Ethiopia to boost commercial diplomacy, security cooperation and regional stability, including support around Bishoftu airport and SME financing.

BRICS Trade & WTO: BRICS leaders meeting in New Delhi backed Ethiopia’s WTO accession bid and called for restoring a fully functioning two-tier binding WTO dispute settlement, while warning against rising unilateral tariff and non-tariff barriers. BRICS Declaration on Middle East: The bloc agreed on “maximum restraint” amid West Asia escalation, linking security concerns to trade and energy stability, and urged dialogue to prevent further aggravation. Ethiopia’s BRICS push: Prime Minister Abiy told the summit Ethiopia is ready to engage as both a grain consumer and producer, highlighting food security progress, digital public infrastructure, and an inclusive approach to AI. Ethiopia–Russia ties: Abiy met Vladimir Putin on BRICS sidelines, saying bilateral relations are improving and trade is growing. Ethiopia–Vietnam cooperation: Abiy held talks with Vietnam’s PM on expanding bilateral cooperation. EDIF reform talks: Ethiopia’s Deposit Insurance Fund is considering moving from a flat 0.3% contribution to a risk-based “target fund” model as T-bill yields fall. FX auction undersubscription: Banks took less than the NBE’s offered FX in a recent auction, blamed on birr liquidity constraints rather than weaker demand. Logistics digitisation: ESL and the Ethio-Djibouti Railway rolled out digital portals for booking, tracking, payments and documentation to speed regional trade. Air quality crisis: New reporting flags severe black carbon and PM2.5 pollution in Addis Ababa, raising urgent public health concerns. Ethiopia–Malaysia diplomacy: Malaysia’s PM Anwar invited Ethiopia to open an embassy in Kuala Lumpur, with talks on halal, agriculture, pharma, digital services and renewable energy. Eritrea–Ethiopia tensions: Eritrea accused Ethiopia of destabilising the region in renewed diplomatic sparring.

BRICS Summit Diplomacy (Ethiopia in focus): Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed met India’s Narendra Modi on BRICS sidelines as New Delhi pushes “resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability,” while BRICS negotiators agreed on a joint declaration likely to condemn unilateral war without naming countries—an effort to bridge Iran-UAE differences amid the US-Iran conflict and Red Sea disruptions. Ethiopia–Malaysia Trade & Services: Malaysia invited Ethiopia to open an embassy in Kuala Lumpur and agreed to a first bilateral consultation next year, with talks covering halal products, agriculture, food security, pharmaceuticals, digital services, renewable energy and tourism. Ethiopia–India Strategic Push: Modi and Abiy also discussed defence capacity building, investment linkages, critical minerals, clean energy and healthcare, aiming to deepen Ethiopia-India ties and strengthen Global South representation. China–Ethiopia Air Link: Xiamen Airlines plans its first direct China–Addis Ababa service from Nov 28, 2026, using a Boeing 787-8 to boost China-Africa connectivity. Agribusiness Risk (Kenya, regional spillover): African swine fever killed 1,470 pigs in Kenya’s Kiambu and spread to six counties, threatening pork supply and livestock trade across the region.

BRICS Summit in New Delhi: Leaders are arriving for the 18th BRICS summit as India pushes a “Delhi Declaration” covering anti-terrorism, governance reform and stronger multilateralism, while negotiators still struggle to align language on the Iran–UAE dispute. India-Russia and West Asia diplomacy: PM Modi met Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines, with talks expected to focus on trade, energy, security and maritime safety, while Putin pitched an NDB-backed investment platform for BRICS infrastructure and logistics. Local-currency push: Iran’s president urged BRICS to expand settlement in national currencies and strengthen financing for infrastructure, including through the New Development Bank. Ethiopia in the spotlight: TIME Africa hailed GERD as a model of African ambition and domestic financing, arguing for benefit-sharing to turn Nile tensions into development gains. Ethiopia rights and aid access: At the UN Human Rights Council, 41 countries pressed Ethiopia’s government over Tigray and concerns for aid workers, calling for unhindered access and accountability. Regional business angle: A report on Ethiopia’s logistics capacity notes a Chinese-backed logistics center expansion aimed at boosting throughput and efficiency.

BRICS Summit in Focus: India hosts the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi on Sept 12-13 under “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability,” with leaders including Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Masoud Pezeshkian, Cyril Ramaphosa and Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed expected to push agendas on food, energy, supply-chain security, digital transformation and global governance reform amid wars and trade tensions. Iran-India Outreach: Pezeshkian arrived in Delhi and said BRICS aims to confront unilateralism and reduce dollar dependence, with a bilateral meeting with PM Modi on the agenda. Payments & Local Currencies: India’s push is gaining momentum: officials and experts say BRICS should link payment systems, encourage trade in local currencies, and explore interoperability between central bank digital currencies to speed cross-border transactions—an idea that could matter for Ethiopia and other African BRICS economies. Business Forum Signals: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal urged BRICS members to open markets, reduce non-tariff barriers, and make digital trade easier for MSMEs, while Russia floated a grain exchange concept for food security. Security & Logistics in Delhi: Delhi is under heavy security with major traffic and transport restrictions during the summit, including bank closures tied to the weekend calendar. Ethiopia Business Angle: A Henan Mission Machinery delegation plans an Ethiopia visit to bid on a coffee cleaning and drying plant for Oromia’s coffee cooperative union, pointing to continued investment interest in Ethiopia’s value-add coffee processing.

BRICS Summit Watch: India hosts the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi on Sept 12-13, with Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa and Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed among the top arrivals, as India pushes a “resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability” agenda and tries to keep the bloc focused despite war and trade tensions. Payments & Finance: India is also pressing for CBDC links across BRICS to speed cross-border payments, though adoption and political/technical hurdles could slow progress. Ethiopia in the Mix: Ethiopia is listed among BRICS participants and also appears on the US E-1/E-2 treaty visa list, signaling continued economic and people-to-people links. Aviation Connectivity: Xiamen Airlines plans its first Africa route with a weekly seasonal Addis Ababa service starting Nov 28, potentially boosting China–Ethiopia travel and onward connections. Ethiopia New Year Momentum: Ethiopia’s Deputy PM Temesgen Tiruneh and PM Abiy Ahmed highlighted progress in agriculture, industry, digital growth and sea-access efforts as the country marks the Ethiopian New Year.

BRICS Security & Logistics: New Delhi is in full swing for the 18th BRICS Summit on Sept 12-13, with about 25,000 security personnel deployed and hundreds of CCTV cameras installed around Bharat Mandapam, while traffic and court schedules are being adjusted for the high-profile visits. China-India Diplomacy: China confirmed Xi Jinping will attend the summit in India from Sept 12-13, his first trip in nearly seven years, underscoring renewed engagement amid long-running tensions. Payments & Digital Finance: India is pushing for BRICS cross-border payments via central bank digital currency links, while also backing local-currency trade settlement—an approach that faces political and technical hurdles. Ethiopia in the Bloc: Ethiopia’s foreign minister arrived in New Delhi for the summit, as BRICS expands to include Ethiopia and other new members. Ethiopia’s Digital & Trade Push: In Addis Ababa, PM Abiy highlighted “digital sovereignty” and inaugurated the first phase of the modern Mojo logistics center expansion, aimed at boosting container handling and AfCFTA trade. Red Sea Access: Israel reiterated support for Ethiopia’s quest for sea access, framing it as a shared regional stability interest. Climate Pressure: A global heat record report points to worsening El Niño-driven extremes, with Ethiopia among countries seeing rising malaria burdens.

BRICS Summit Watch: India’s 18th BRICS Leaders Summit in New Delhi (Sept 12–13) will push “resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability,” with Ethiopia among the 11 full members and a focus on food, energy, health, disaster reduction, trade and connectivity. Trade Imbalance: India’s BRICS trade deficit has more than tripled to about $226.1bn as imports—especially from China and Russia—outpace exports, prompting calls for better market access and higher-value exports. Digital Public Infrastructure: UNDP’s AA4DPI mission sent Ethiopian delegations to study India’s digital identity and payments systems, with lessons aimed at scaling agriculture, healthcare and social protection. Finance & Infrastructure: Ethiopia’s Finance Minister Ahmed Shide met AIIB President Zou Jiayi to discuss infrastructure, energy and climate-resilient development, including potential AIIB support for Bishoftu International Airport. EU Support: The EU reaffirmed backing for Ethiopia’s economic reforms and said it will expand cooperation in digital infrastructure, renewable energy, public health, climate action and trade. Cybersecurity: Iran-linked Mirage Kitten targeted software developers in Ethiopia with fake recruiter job offers that deliver remote access malware. Climate Risk: A global resiliency ranking put Addis Ababa among the top cities for climate-change resilience, alongside Nairobi and other major African capitals.

BRICS Summit Watch: India is set to host the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi on Sept 12-13 at Bharat Mandapam under the theme “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability,” with a detailed first-day programme including closed-door talks, a Bharat Innovates exhibition, a leaders’ tree-planting event and a Modi-hosted gala dinner. Ethiopia at BRICS: Ethiopia is among the 11 full BRICS members, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is expected to participate as the bloc expands its agenda on trade, investment and global governance reform. Nile Basin Diplomacy: Former US diplomat Tibor Nagy urged Egypt to accept the Nile “2026 reality” rather than 19th/20th century positions, arguing a new approach could enable a win-win deal with Ethiopia. Air Connectivity: Jazeera Airways launched direct Kuwait–Addis Ababa flights, adding three weekly services aimed at boosting travel for the large Ethiopian community in Kuwait and supporting tourism and trade. FX Reality Check: A new analysis says Ethiopia’s remittance gains don’t prove hawala and parallel FX markets are gone, pointing to persistent gaps between official and real dollar values. Qatar–Ethiopia Business: Qatar’s Al-Misnad met Ethiopia’s President Taye Atske Selassie to discuss boosting trade and investment, including opportunities for Ethiopian investors in Qatar.

BRICS Summit Build-up: India is set to host the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi on Sept 12-13, with Ethiopia among the 11 full members and the agenda framed around resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability. AI for Climate Work: NEC and UNDP signed a non-binding MoU to use AI and digital tools to support conservation, restoration and climate resilience, with a focus on strengthening local communities and data-driven planning. Ethiopia–Qatar Investment Push: Ethiopia’s President Taye met Qatar Chamber board member Ali bin Abdullatif al-Misnad in Dubai, urging Qatari investors into agriculture, healthcare, infrastructure and digital services. Housing Finance Watch: An IFC-backed mortgage push is framed as solving long-term funding gaps, but affordability remains the key risk for Ethiopia’s housing market. Currency/FX Snapshot: Bank-by-bank dollar buying and selling rates in Ethiopia moved only slightly overall, but the spread between banks still matters for customers. Nile Basin Legal Signal: A former Ethiopian water minister says the Nile CFA’s implementation can proceed even without Egypt’s signature, arguing the legal basis is already in place. Gold Output Update: Akobo Minerals reported strong August doré production from Segele, with cumulative output rising since start-up. Digital EV Platform: Orbix Technologies launched a unified EV and smart-parking digital platform targeting 500,000 EVs and aiming to reduce fragmented urban services. Regional Trade Platform: Pakistan-Africa Economic Council (PAEC) is set to launch to connect Pakistani businesses with East Africa first, including Ethiopia, for trade and joint ventures.

Livestock Value Chains: Ministers from Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda, Niger, Mali, Malawi, Rwanda and others agreed at the Africa Food Systems Forum 2026 to scale regional livestock value chains, unlock investment and expand intra-African trade, with AU-IBAR and ILRI pushing a shift from dialogue to action. Agrifood Budget Tools: FAO launched two Africa-focused instruments—ASPEA to standardize agrifood public expenditure analysis and PolOpT to help governments reallocate existing budgets for better results. Water Cost Sharing Debate: A senior transboundary water expert said Egypt and Sudan should have shared Ethiopia’s watershed restoration and afforestation costs, arguing downstream benefits include reduced sedimentation and better flow regulation. Mining Security Shock: Kefi Gold and Copper suspended work at its Tulu Kapi gold project in Oromia after a serious security incident with multiple fatalities, citing talks with government and stakeholders before any restart. Ethiopia’s Drone Push: Ethiopia’s growing domestic drone production—reported at two factories—signals expanding defense capability, though details remain tightly controlled. Health Investment Focus: A new ECA-backed initiative highlights health spending as an economic investment, with Ethiopia among countries training officials to measure wider returns. BRICS Summit Watch: As India hosts BRICS in New Delhi on Sept 12-13, Ethiopia’s role is in the spotlight amid plans for trade, payments and practical cooperation, while Russia and India are set for bilateral talks including the Su-57 deal. Dangote IPO Angle: Dangote’s refinery IPO plans—marketed as an “IPO for the people”—include expansion references to Ethiopia and other countries, with share ownership pitched for everyday retail investors.

Health Data Infrastructure: WHO launched the Regional Health Data Hub in Addis Ababa to connect fragmented health systems across Africa, helping countries analyze trusted data for outbreak response, maternal and child health planning, and better resource allocation. Skills for Jobs: Ethiopia is validating revised TVET digital curricula and learning materials with partners, aiming to align training with labour market needs and the country’s digital transformation priorities. Aviation & Trade Finance: The U.S. Development Finance Corporation is set to back SME lending tied to the $12.5bn Bishoftu International Airport, as Ethiopia Airlines nears talks to add Boeing 777 freighters to boost cargo capacity. Telecom Monetization: Safaricom Ethiopia crossed 15 million subscribers, with data users and data revenue now central to turning rapid growth into a sustainable business. Energy & Investment: President Taye told the AIM summit in Dubai that Ethiopia wants to expand clean power and electricity exports across the East African Power Pool, targeting major renewable capacity growth by 2030. Regional Logistics Pressure: Ethiopia’s cargo still heavily relies on Djibouti despite Red Sea disruptions, underscoring the cost of limited corridor options. Mining Safety: Kefi Gold and Copper suspended work at Ethiopia’s Tulu Kapi project after a fatal security incident, pending safer conditions.

Corporate Reputation & Digital Channels: Bloomwit Africa’s “State of Corporate Communications in Africa 2026” warns that one strategy won’t work across markets, with Ethiopia’s Telegram-heavy environment creating a blind spot for conventional monitoring and AI-driven misinformation emerging as a key reputational risk. Banking Performance: Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) reported Birr 60.51bn in non-interest income for 2025/26, up from Birr 34.09bn, while net profit reached Birr 38.71bn despite major foreign-currency adjustments and higher operating costs. Private Sector Climate Push: Addis Ababa Chamber is setting up a Green Growth Centre to lead private sector mobilisation for COP32, aiming to move businesses from passive participation to active climate and economic partnership. BRICS Legal Cooperation: China’s top judge Zhang Jun urged deeper judicial cooperation at the BRICS Chief Justices’ Forum in New Delhi, alongside bilateral talks focused on commercial dispute resolution and strengthening commercial courts. Telecom Growth: Safaricom Ethiopia crossed 15m 90-day active subscribers, nearing breakeven as it expands network coverage and 4G rollout with 5G readiness. Tax Calendar: India’s GST Council meeting was postponed from Sept 12 to Oct 7 due to the BRICS summit. Ethiopia’s Reform Narrative: PM Abiy and GCS highlighted Ethiopia’s “move from vision to reality” through projects and macro reforms, while Medemer State messaging stressed a more self-conscious development direction.

Investment & Diplomacy: President Taye leads a high-level Ethiopian delegation to Dubai for the 15th Annual Investment Meeting, with a focus on digital economy, sustainable development, innovation and new investment partnerships. Economic Transformation: Ethiopia marks Pagume’s “Day of Break Through” with claims of stronger reforms, productivity gains and a shift toward import substitution, alongside reported growth in wheat output and broader food-security initiatives. Livestock Exports: Livestock export earnings rose to $128.3m in the 2018 Ethiopian fiscal year, and officials say capacity at export abattoirs is underused, with a push to lift utilization and scale meat exports toward $1bn potential. Power & Regional Trade: Ethiopia’s power exports helped halve Djibouti’s production costs, while a World Bank report flags Africa’s grid and cross-border wiring gaps as the main bottlenecks to a true electricity market. Telecom Finance: Ethio Telecom targets 295bn birr revenue for 2026/27 and allocates 8.1bn birr to a disaster risk fund, with “Beyond Connectivity” services expected to drive a growing share of income. Policy Watch (BRICS/India): India’s GST Council meeting was rescheduled to Oct 7 due to the BRICS summit in New Delhi, with likely discussions on GST registration and business compliance. Trade Risk (Red Sea): War-risk insurance premiums on Red Sea routes are rising again, threatening higher freight and insurance costs for Ethiopia’s seaborne trade via Djibouti. Social Risk (Online Abuse): UNICEF reports about 20m children aged 12–17 across 21 countries have faced technology-facilitated sexual exploitation and abuse, including Ethiopia in the research base. Health & Capacity (Veterinary): A study in West Shewa finds veterinary service delivery gaps—weak clinic equipment, unregulated drug sellers and underused diagnostics—leaving livestock health systems “fundamentally broken.”

Ethiopia Telecom: Ethio Telecom set a 295 billion birr revenue target for 2026/27 and earmarked 8.1 billion birr for a National Disaster Risk Response Fund, with “Beyond Connectivity” services (digital finance, e-commerce and enterprise solutions) projected to drive 77.45 billion birr. Power Trade: Ethiopia’s power exports reached $118.1m in 2024/25 and helped halve Djibouti’s production costs, as a World Bank report points to a wider Ethiopia–Kenya–Tanzania corridor to unlock a bigger regional electricity market. AI & Skills: IGAD says Ethiopia is building globally competitive AI capabilities, citing progress in human capital, digital infrastructure and practical AI use in sectors like agriculture, healthcare and finance. Sovereignty & Reform: PM Abiy framed Ethiopia’s economic transformation as a path to real sovereignty through self-reliance, highlighting wheat gains and Made in Ethiopia and Yelemat Trufat initiatives. Regional Connectivity: Kenya and Somalia move to extend the Isiolo–Mandera road corridor into Somalia via a joint technical committee under the Horn of Africa Gateway Development Project. Cross-Border Payments: BRICS is advancing a cross-border payment mechanism (“BRICS Pay”) aimed at faster trade settlement using local currencies and reducing reliance on Western systems. Climate Implementation Push: Addis hosts CCDA-XIV (Sept 7–9) focused on moving Africa from pledges to bankable climate projects.

AI & Regional Competitiveness: IGAD says Ethiopia’s AI capabilities are now strong enough to compete globally, citing progress in human capital, digital infrastructure and practical AI use in agriculture, healthcare, education and finance, with a push to turn Ethiopia’s experience into a regional partnership. Housing Finance Push: Ethiopia and the IFC signed a framework to create the country’s first mortgage refinance company, capitalized at 100bn birr with at least $200m from the IFC, aimed at unlocking long-term mortgage liquidity for private lenders—though analysts warn it won’t fix the structural housing shortage by capital alone. Banking Results: State-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia reported a 75.8% jump in net profit to ETB 38.71bn for FY ending June 30, 2025, driven by higher interest and non-interest income. Property Dispute Watch: Ethiopia’s Federal High Court reaffirmed an injunction freezing 32 Noah Real Estate homes near Women’s Square, after buyers alleged delivery delays and potential resale amid FX and contract disputes. Urban Rail Strain: Addis Ababa’s light rail service is running at under half capacity due to rolling-stock and foreign-currency constraints, worsening commuter delays and pushing some back toward taxis. Trade & Integration: AU welcomed Somalia’s AfCFTA ratification as a step toward deeper continental trade, while Ethiopia-linked reporting highlights the wider push for regional market access and export expansion. Security & Borders: South Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to a joint probe into the killing of Ethiopian UN peacekeepers in Jonglei, alongside broader efforts to curb cross-border criminal networks. Climate & Food Risk: East Africa faces grain shortfalls as climate shocks hit production, while new climate and agribusiness finance initiatives are announced in the region.