AGP Executive Report

BRICS Summit Build-up: India is set to host the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi on Sept 12-13, with Ethiopia among the 11 full members and the agenda framed around resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability. AI for Climate Work: NEC and UNDP signed a non-binding MoU to use AI and digital tools to support conservation, restoration and climate resilience, with a focus on strengthening local communities and data-driven planning. Ethiopia–Qatar Investment Push: Ethiopia’s President Taye met Qatar Chamber board member Ali bin Abdullatif al-Misnad in Dubai, urging Qatari investors into agriculture, healthcare, infrastructure and digital services. Housing Finance Watch: An IFC-backed mortgage push is framed as solving long-term funding gaps, but affordability remains the key risk for Ethiopia’s housing market. Currency/FX Snapshot: Bank-by-bank dollar buying and selling rates in Ethiopia moved only slightly overall, but the spread between banks still matters for customers. Nile Basin Legal Signal: A former Ethiopian water minister says the Nile CFA’s implementation can proceed even without Egypt’s signature, arguing the legal basis is already in place. Gold Output Update: Akobo Minerals reported strong August doré production from Segele, with cumulative output rising since start-up. Digital EV Platform: Orbix Technologies launched a unified EV and smart-parking digital platform targeting 500,000 EVs and aiming to reduce fragmented urban services. Regional Trade Platform: Pakistan-Africa Economic Council (PAEC) is set to launch to connect Pakistani businesses with East Africa first, including Ethiopia, for trade and joint ventures.

Livestock Value Chains: Ministers from Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda, Niger, Mali, Malawi, Rwanda and others agreed at the Africa Food Systems Forum 2026 to scale regional livestock value chains, unlock investment and expand intra-African trade, with AU-IBAR and ILRI pushing a shift from dialogue to action. Agrifood Budget Tools: FAO launched two Africa-focused instruments—ASPEA to standardize agrifood public expenditure analysis and PolOpT to help governments reallocate existing budgets for better results. Water Cost Sharing Debate: A senior transboundary water expert said Egypt and Sudan should have shared Ethiopia’s watershed restoration and afforestation costs, arguing downstream benefits include reduced sedimentation and better flow regulation. Mining Security Shock: Kefi Gold and Copper suspended work at its Tulu Kapi gold project in Oromia after a serious security incident with multiple fatalities, citing talks with government and stakeholders before any restart. Ethiopia’s Drone Push: Ethiopia’s growing domestic drone production—reported at two factories—signals expanding defense capability, though details remain tightly controlled. Health Investment Focus: A new ECA-backed initiative highlights health spending as an economic investment, with Ethiopia among countries training officials to measure wider returns. BRICS Summit Watch: As India hosts BRICS in New Delhi on Sept 12-13, Ethiopia’s role is in the spotlight amid plans for trade, payments and practical cooperation, while Russia and India are set for bilateral talks including the Su-57 deal. Dangote IPO Angle: Dangote’s refinery IPO plans—marketed as an “IPO for the people”—include expansion references to Ethiopia and other countries, with share ownership pitched for everyday retail investors.

Health Data Infrastructure: WHO launched the Regional Health Data Hub in Addis Ababa to connect fragmented health systems across Africa, helping countries analyze trusted data for outbreak response, maternal and child health planning, and better resource allocation. Skills for Jobs: Ethiopia is validating revised TVET digital curricula and learning materials with partners, aiming to align training with labour market needs and the country’s digital transformation priorities. Aviation & Trade Finance: The U.S. Development Finance Corporation is set to back SME lending tied to the $12.5bn Bishoftu International Airport, as Ethiopia Airlines nears talks to add Boeing 777 freighters to boost cargo capacity. Telecom Monetization: Safaricom Ethiopia crossed 15 million subscribers, with data users and data revenue now central to turning rapid growth into a sustainable business. Energy & Investment: President Taye told the AIM summit in Dubai that Ethiopia wants to expand clean power and electricity exports across the East African Power Pool, targeting major renewable capacity growth by 2030. Regional Logistics Pressure: Ethiopia’s cargo still heavily relies on Djibouti despite Red Sea disruptions, underscoring the cost of limited corridor options. Mining Safety: Kefi Gold and Copper suspended work at Ethiopia’s Tulu Kapi project after a fatal security incident, pending safer conditions.

Corporate Reputation & Digital Channels: Bloomwit Africa’s “State of Corporate Communications in Africa 2026” warns that one strategy won’t work across markets, with Ethiopia’s Telegram-heavy environment creating a blind spot for conventional monitoring and AI-driven misinformation emerging as a key reputational risk. Banking Performance: Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) reported Birr 60.51bn in non-interest income for 2025/26, up from Birr 34.09bn, while net profit reached Birr 38.71bn despite major foreign-currency adjustments and higher operating costs. Private Sector Climate Push: Addis Ababa Chamber is setting up a Green Growth Centre to lead private sector mobilisation for COP32, aiming to move businesses from passive participation to active climate and economic partnership. BRICS Legal Cooperation: China’s top judge Zhang Jun urged deeper judicial cooperation at the BRICS Chief Justices’ Forum in New Delhi, alongside bilateral talks focused on commercial dispute resolution and strengthening commercial courts. Telecom Growth: Safaricom Ethiopia crossed 15m 90-day active subscribers, nearing breakeven as it expands network coverage and 4G rollout with 5G readiness. Tax Calendar: India’s GST Council meeting was postponed from Sept 12 to Oct 7 due to the BRICS summit. Ethiopia’s Reform Narrative: PM Abiy and GCS highlighted Ethiopia’s “move from vision to reality” through projects and macro reforms, while Medemer State messaging stressed a more self-conscious development direction.

Investment & Diplomacy: President Taye leads a high-level Ethiopian delegation to Dubai for the 15th Annual Investment Meeting, with a focus on digital economy, sustainable development, innovation and new investment partnerships. Economic Transformation: Ethiopia marks Pagume’s “Day of Break Through” with claims of stronger reforms, productivity gains and a shift toward import substitution, alongside reported growth in wheat output and broader food-security initiatives. Livestock Exports: Livestock export earnings rose to $128.3m in the 2018 Ethiopian fiscal year, and officials say capacity at export abattoirs is underused, with a push to lift utilization and scale meat exports toward $1bn potential. Power & Regional Trade: Ethiopia’s power exports helped halve Djibouti’s production costs, while a World Bank report flags Africa’s grid and cross-border wiring gaps as the main bottlenecks to a true electricity market. Telecom Finance: Ethio Telecom targets 295bn birr revenue for 2026/27 and allocates 8.1bn birr to a disaster risk fund, with “Beyond Connectivity” services expected to drive a growing share of income. Policy Watch (BRICS/India): India’s GST Council meeting was rescheduled to Oct 7 due to the BRICS summit in New Delhi, with likely discussions on GST registration and business compliance. Trade Risk (Red Sea): War-risk insurance premiums on Red Sea routes are rising again, threatening higher freight and insurance costs for Ethiopia’s seaborne trade via Djibouti. Social Risk (Online Abuse): UNICEF reports about 20m children aged 12–17 across 21 countries have faced technology-facilitated sexual exploitation and abuse, including Ethiopia in the research base. Health & Capacity (Veterinary): A study in West Shewa finds veterinary service delivery gaps—weak clinic equipment, unregulated drug sellers and underused diagnostics—leaving livestock health systems “fundamentally broken.”

Ethiopia Telecom: Ethio Telecom set a 295 billion birr revenue target for 2026/27 and earmarked 8.1 billion birr for a National Disaster Risk Response Fund, with “Beyond Connectivity” services (digital finance, e-commerce and enterprise solutions) projected to drive 77.45 billion birr. Power Trade: Ethiopia’s power exports reached $118.1m in 2024/25 and helped halve Djibouti’s production costs, as a World Bank report points to a wider Ethiopia–Kenya–Tanzania corridor to unlock a bigger regional electricity market. AI & Skills: IGAD says Ethiopia is building globally competitive AI capabilities, citing progress in human capital, digital infrastructure and practical AI use in sectors like agriculture, healthcare and finance. Sovereignty & Reform: PM Abiy framed Ethiopia’s economic transformation as a path to real sovereignty through self-reliance, highlighting wheat gains and Made in Ethiopia and Yelemat Trufat initiatives. Regional Connectivity: Kenya and Somalia move to extend the Isiolo–Mandera road corridor into Somalia via a joint technical committee under the Horn of Africa Gateway Development Project. Cross-Border Payments: BRICS is advancing a cross-border payment mechanism (“BRICS Pay”) aimed at faster trade settlement using local currencies and reducing reliance on Western systems. Climate Implementation Push: Addis hosts CCDA-XIV (Sept 7–9) focused on moving Africa from pledges to bankable climate projects.

AI & Regional Competitiveness: IGAD says Ethiopia’s AI capabilities are now strong enough to compete globally, citing progress in human capital, digital infrastructure and practical AI use in agriculture, healthcare, education and finance, with a push to turn Ethiopia’s experience into a regional partnership. Housing Finance Push: Ethiopia and the IFC signed a framework to create the country’s first mortgage refinance company, capitalized at 100bn birr with at least $200m from the IFC, aimed at unlocking long-term mortgage liquidity for private lenders—though analysts warn it won’t fix the structural housing shortage by capital alone. Banking Results: State-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia reported a 75.8% jump in net profit to ETB 38.71bn for FY ending June 30, 2025, driven by higher interest and non-interest income. Property Dispute Watch: Ethiopia’s Federal High Court reaffirmed an injunction freezing 32 Noah Real Estate homes near Women’s Square, after buyers alleged delivery delays and potential resale amid FX and contract disputes. Urban Rail Strain: Addis Ababa’s light rail service is running at under half capacity due to rolling-stock and foreign-currency constraints, worsening commuter delays and pushing some back toward taxis. Trade & Integration: AU welcomed Somalia’s AfCFTA ratification as a step toward deeper continental trade, while Ethiopia-linked reporting highlights the wider push for regional market access and export expansion. Security & Borders: South Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to a joint probe into the killing of Ethiopian UN peacekeepers in Jonglei, alongside broader efforts to curb cross-border criminal networks. Climate & Food Risk: East Africa faces grain shortfalls as climate shocks hit production, while new climate and agribusiness finance initiatives are announced in the region.

Sea Access & Trade Security: Education Minister Prof. Berhanu Nega says Ethiopia’s Red Sea access push is a long-term national imperative tied to security, demographics and trade, arguing it should be pursued for mutual benefit across the Red Sea region. Nile Redress Claims: Former Irrigation State Minister Birhanu Lenjiso tells ENA Ethiopia has grounds to seek redress over historical Nile inequities, citing Egypt’s heavy use versus Ethiopia’s limited utilization and the need for a new benefit-sharing framework. AU Trade Integration: The AU Commission chair congratulated Somalia for ratifying AfCFTA, calling it a step toward deeper continental market integration and highlighting Somalia’s trade and investment potential. Water-Economic Diplomacy: GWPO and partners launched a Global Ambassadors’ Forum for Water and Economic Diplomacy at World Water Week, aiming to mobilize ambassadors around water investment and trade cooperation. Housing Finance Push: Ethiopia signed an NBE–IFC framework to set up a 100bn birr mortgage refinance company to improve long-term liquidity for private lenders, targeting affordable housing at scale. Banking Performance: CBE posted record profit growth for FY ending June 30, 2025, with net profit up 75.8% to 38.71bn birr, though operating costs rose sharply. Railway Strain: Addis Ababa commuters face longer waits as the light rail runs below half capacity due to rolling stock shortages and foreign currency constraints. Property Dispute in Addis: Court reaffirmed an injunction freezing 32 Noah Real Estate homes over buyer claims of delayed delivery and fears of third-party sales. Sudan War External Support: A UN panel says Ethiopia has not responded to requests about alleged illicit military support linked to Sudan’s conflict, while describing cross-border networks aiding the RSF. BRICS Justice Talks: BRICS Chief Justices’ Forum opened in New Delhi, with CJI Surya Kant stressing mediation/arbitration and stronger commercial courts to boost cross-border business confidence.

Port & Trade Digitization: Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics (ESL) launched a digital customer self-service platform for port and cargo operations, adding online registration, cargo tracking, booking, demurrage management, digital payments, and AI chat support to cut paper-based processes. US–Ethiopia Economic Ties: Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos met U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Frank Garcia to discuss expanding trade, investment, and commercial links, alongside regional peace and security. Livestock Exports Upswing: Ethiopia’s livestock export earnings hit $128.3m (2018 fiscal year), up from about $95m, with targets to reach $1bn by boosting abattoir capacity use and fixing supply-chain constraints. Telecom Growth: Safaricom Ethiopia surpassed 15m active subscribers (90-day), reporting 3,500+ network sites and coverage reaching about 60% of the population. Regional Water Diplomacy: Italy offered to mediate between Egypt and Ethiopia on Nile waters, citing its ties to both sides and support for GERD-related dialogue. Judicial Cooperation at BRICS: India hosted the BRICS Chief Justices’ Forum in New Delhi, with CJI Surya Kant pushing cooperation on commercial dispute mediation/arbitration and AI-enabled court efficiency.

Telecom Growth: Ethio telecom says it has completed the first year of its “Next Horizon: Digital & Beyond” strategy, aiming to reach 100 million customers, while also expanding 4G coverage and pushing digital financial services, cloud and enterprise solutions. Mobile Market Milestone: Safaricom Ethiopia surpassed 15 million 90-day active subscribers on its fifth licence anniversary, reporting ETB 684 million in community funding since launch. Judicial & Legal Cooperation: BRICS Chief Justices’ Forum opened in New Delhi (Sept 4-6), with India’s CJI Surya Kant holding bilateral meetings and sessions on mediation, cross-border enforcement, and AI in justice. Ethiopia-Netherlands Talks: Ethiopia and the Netherlands held their fourth political consultations in Addis Ababa, focusing on peace, economic cooperation and reform of the multilateral system. Energy & Industry: Dangote set Sept 30 for the Lamu oil refinery groundbreaking, a project positioned to supply East Africa and potentially draw regional crude and equity interest including Ethiopia. Digital Health: East Africa is moving from pilots to wider adoption of AI-supported diagnostics and telemedicine, with WHX in Nairobi set to spotlight procurement and scaling. Water & Policy: A symposium in Derry will feature Ele Jan Saaf warning of the international water crisis and arguing for rivers to have a voice in negotiations.

Telecom Strategy: Ethio telecom says it has completed the first year of its “Next Horizon: Digital & Beyond” plan, targeting 96.2m customers by end-2026/27 and pushing 4G coverage to 95% as it expands into digital financial services, cloud and enterprise tech. Energy & Industry: Heineken Ethiopia will launch a 4bn birr (US$24.5m) green power project at its Kilinto brewery in October, cutting reliance on heavy fuel oil and aiming for carbon-neutral operations. Trade & Integration: Ethiopia reaffirmed its push for deeper Horn of Africa integration, linking its Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda to regional corridors and trade-facilitating infrastructure. Agribusiness & Food Security: Mary’s Meals reports school feeding helped cut hunger-related absenteeism in Tigray to near zero, while expanding locally sourced meals across multiple countries. Climate Risk: UNICEF warns El Niño could hit Eastern and Southern Africa’s children through flooding, failed harvests and disease, with 162m children exposed. Regional Diplomacy: Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative drew praise from the AU for boosting biodiversity and ecosystem restoration while supporting climate adaptation and mitigation. Aviation Watch: Ukraine urged airlines to avoid Russian airspace; 46 nonstop route pairs still link Russia with Ethiopia and other African states.

Mortgage Finance Push: PM Abiy oversaw an NBE–IFC framework to set up a 100bn birr mortgage refinance company, backed by at least $200m from IFC, aiming to ease liquidity gaps and expand affordable housing finance. Real Estate Launch: Aman Properties unified New Life, Lafto Life and Sky View under one brand and made its public debut, announcing Aman Addis Expo 2026 (Sept 4–7) at Laphto Mall. Nile Water Tensions: Tibor Nagy urged Egypt to accept a “new reality” and recognize Ethiopia’s right to develop Abay/Nile resources, warning that the old approach is out of step with today’s balance of power. Child Safety Online: UNICEF reported about 20m children (one in five internet-using 12–17-year-olds) face sexual exploitation or abuse online, with social media the biggest channel. El Niño Risk: UNICEF warned 162m children across eastern and southern Africa are in areas vulnerable to intensifying 2026–27 El Niño impacts, including food and water insecurity and disrupted learning. Trade & Agribusiness Linkages: China-backed Yunnan and Ethiopian partners moved to expand Ethiopia–China coffee trade via closer industrial and supply-chain partnerships. Regional Power & Climate: Ethiopia’s electricity export push and GERD-related coordination concerns remain in focus as climate shocks and downstream impacts raise stakes for water and energy planning.

Energy Exports: Ethiopia’s electricity exports rose 25% to a record $475.7m, with revenue hitting $773m and net profit $246m as generating capacity topped 9,000MW. Macroeconomic Reforms & Trade: Finance Minister Ahmed Shide met IFC’s Makhtar Diop to expand private investment, including PPPs and projects in transport, energy and housing; exporters say reforms are easing bottlenecks and opening new markets. ECX Performance: ECX surpassed its annual target by 167%, trading 48.83bn birr and expanding quality inspection, weighing and certification services. Agriculture & Food Security: Ethiopia says it reached wheat self-sufficiency after the National Wheat Flagship Program, while officials cite fertilizer distribution and irrigation expansion driving modernization and food sovereignty. Health & Community Services: MoH says rainy-season volunteerism is expanding preventive care, with mass screenings and treatment for millions. Public Health Research: Ethiopia will launch its first nationwide blood lead level study for children and women, aiming to map exposure and costs. Climate Risk: UNICEF warns El Niño threatens 162m children across eastern and southern Africa, including tens of thousands in Ethiopia. Trade Diplomacy: Brazil opened a permanent ApexBrasil office in Addis to boost agribusiness, green energy and tech transfer; China and Ethiopia plan closer coffee trade partnerships via Yunnan. Regional Business: Ethiopia’s electricity, trade and health gains come as the Horn faces compounding El Niño shocks and humanitarian pressure.

Food Security Shock: A strengthened El Niño is pushing a global hunger crisis, with UN warnings that 60 million people face acute risk; Ethiopia alone has 10.2 million people in urgent food insecurity, alongside severe shortages across Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti and South Sudan. Public Health & Safety: Ethiopia will launch its first nationwide blood lead level study in the Ethiopian New Year, targeting children 6–59 months and women 15–49, to map exposure sources and costs. Transport & Trade Links: South Sudan and Kenya agreed to mobilise resources for the Juba–Torit–Kapoeta–Nadapal highway, a key corridor connecting to the Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia (LAPSSET) route. Telecom Dividends: Safaricom Ethiopia’s parent has started paying a record Sh46.08bn final dividend early, following strong group profit and reduced losses from Safaricom Ethiopia. Ethiopia–China Coffee Push: Ethiopia and China’s Yunnan Province plan deeper cooperation in coffee trade and value addition, including processing, roasting and instant coffee. Maritime Diplomacy: Somalia says the Ankara Declaration now governs relations with Ethiopia, arguing sea access can be secured commercially while respecting Somali sovereignty. Digital Health Momentum (Regional): East Africa is moving from digital health pilots to broader implementation, with AI diagnostics and telemedicine increasingly on procurement agendas.

EU–Ethiopia Dealmaking: Ethiopia’s parliament chair Dima Noggo says the EU’s Global Gateway and Ethiopia’s Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda II can align priorities to unlock private-sector-led, digitally enabled growth. Coffee Value Addition: Ethiopia and China’s Yunnan Province are pushing deeper specialty coffee trade, with Ethiopia pitching investment across processing, roasting, instant coffee, capsules and packaging. Safaricom Dividend Boost: Safaricom Ethiopia’s parent started paying a record Sh46.08bn final dividend early, lifting total payout to Sh80.13bn as profits rose on stronger M-Pesa earnings. Tourism Recognition: Anbessa Travel won Ethiopia’s Leading Destination Management Company 2026 at the World Travel Awards Africa Gala in Zanzibar. Digital Health Procurement Shift: East Africa is moving from digital health pilots to broader rollout, with AI diagnostics, telemedicine and hospital systems increasingly on procurement agendas. Cybersecurity Warning: Iranian-linked hackers are using fake recruiter coding tests to deliver malware to developers across Egypt, Ethiopia and beyond. IFC Eyes Ethiopia Reforms: IFC Managing Director Makhtar Diop will visit Ethiopia to discuss how the World Bank Group’s next 10-year partnership framework supports jobs, private investment and growth. Refugee Service Reform: Ethiopia’s deputy PM says major institutional reforms at the Refugee and Returnee Service are improving culture, service quality and livelihoods for refugees. Health Financing Skills: A UN ECA workshop in Ethiopia trains health ministries and statisticians to frame health spending as investment using social accounting matrices.

Repatriation & Migration: Ethiopia repatriated nearly 100,000 nationals from abroad in the past 12 months, with 2,463 undocumented Ethiopians returned from Saudi Arabia last week and placed in temporary support facilities before rehabilitation and family reunions. Red Sea & Water Diplomacy: Former Ethiopian water minister Shiferaw Jarso says Egypt is plotting to cut Ethiopia off from Red Sea access, while a former GERD negotiator argues Egypt’s downstream reservoirs lose about 15–16 billion cubic meters annually to evaporation and that upstream storage in Ethiopia’s highlands could reduce those losses. Mining & Governance: Kefi Gold and Copper, developing the Tulu Kapi project in Ethiopia, reshaped its board for the next stage by appointing Danny Callow as an independent non-executive director and outlining committee leadership. Trade & Connectivity: Ethiopian Airlines launched a Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter route to boost China–Africa cargo links. Health Supply Chain: Ethiopia’s Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service (EPSS) won a Gold Award for supply-chain performance and procurement reforms, citing digital transformation and ERP use. Finance & Consumer Protection: The National Bank of Ethiopia invited bids to build a Financial Services Price Comparator Tool to improve transparency and help consumers compare pricing across providers.