AGP Executive Report

Mortgage Finance Push: PM Abiy oversaw an NBE–IFC framework to set up a 100bn birr mortgage refinance company, backed by at least $200m from IFC, aiming to ease liquidity gaps and expand affordable housing finance. Real Estate Launch: Aman Properties unified New Life, Lafto Life and Sky View under one brand and made its public debut, announcing Aman Addis Expo 2026 (Sept 4–7) at Laphto Mall. Nile Water Tensions: Tibor Nagy urged Egypt to accept a “new reality” and recognize Ethiopia’s right to develop Abay/Nile resources, warning that the old approach is out of step with today’s balance of power. Child Safety Online: UNICEF reported about 20m children (one in five internet-using 12–17-year-olds) face sexual exploitation or abuse online, with social media the biggest channel. El Niño Risk: UNICEF warned 162m children across eastern and southern Africa are in areas vulnerable to intensifying 2026–27 El Niño impacts, including food and water insecurity and disrupted learning. Trade & Agribusiness Linkages: China-backed Yunnan and Ethiopian partners moved to expand Ethiopia–China coffee trade via closer industrial and supply-chain partnerships. Regional Power & Climate: Ethiopia’s electricity export push and GERD-related coordination concerns remain in focus as climate shocks and downstream impacts raise stakes for water and energy planning.

Energy Exports: Ethiopia’s electricity exports rose 25% to a record $475.7m, with revenue hitting $773m and net profit $246m as generating capacity topped 9,000MW. Macroeconomic Reforms & Trade: Finance Minister Ahmed Shide met IFC’s Makhtar Diop to expand private investment, including PPPs and projects in transport, energy and housing; exporters say reforms are easing bottlenecks and opening new markets. ECX Performance: ECX surpassed its annual target by 167%, trading 48.83bn birr and expanding quality inspection, weighing and certification services. Agriculture & Food Security: Ethiopia says it reached wheat self-sufficiency after the National Wheat Flagship Program, while officials cite fertilizer distribution and irrigation expansion driving modernization and food sovereignty. Health & Community Services: MoH says rainy-season volunteerism is expanding preventive care, with mass screenings and treatment for millions. Public Health Research: Ethiopia will launch its first nationwide blood lead level study for children and women, aiming to map exposure and costs. Climate Risk: UNICEF warns El Niño threatens 162m children across eastern and southern Africa, including tens of thousands in Ethiopia. Trade Diplomacy: Brazil opened a permanent ApexBrasil office in Addis to boost agribusiness, green energy and tech transfer; China and Ethiopia plan closer coffee trade partnerships via Yunnan. Regional Business: Ethiopia’s electricity, trade and health gains come as the Horn faces compounding El Niño shocks and humanitarian pressure.

Food Security Shock: A strengthened El Niño is pushing a global hunger crisis, with UN warnings that 60 million people face acute risk; Ethiopia alone has 10.2 million people in urgent food insecurity, alongside severe shortages across Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti and South Sudan. Public Health & Safety: Ethiopia will launch its first nationwide blood lead level study in the Ethiopian New Year, targeting children 6–59 months and women 15–49, to map exposure sources and costs. Transport & Trade Links: South Sudan and Kenya agreed to mobilise resources for the Juba–Torit–Kapoeta–Nadapal highway, a key corridor connecting to the Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia (LAPSSET) route. Telecom Dividends: Safaricom Ethiopia’s parent has started paying a record Sh46.08bn final dividend early, following strong group profit and reduced losses from Safaricom Ethiopia. Ethiopia–China Coffee Push: Ethiopia and China’s Yunnan Province plan deeper cooperation in coffee trade and value addition, including processing, roasting and instant coffee. Maritime Diplomacy: Somalia says the Ankara Declaration now governs relations with Ethiopia, arguing sea access can be secured commercially while respecting Somali sovereignty. Digital Health Momentum (Regional): East Africa is moving from digital health pilots to broader implementation, with AI diagnostics and telemedicine increasingly on procurement agendas.

EU–Ethiopia Dealmaking: Ethiopia’s parliament chair Dima Noggo says the EU’s Global Gateway and Ethiopia’s Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda II can align priorities to unlock private-sector-led, digitally enabled growth. Coffee Value Addition: Ethiopia and China’s Yunnan Province are pushing deeper specialty coffee trade, with Ethiopia pitching investment across processing, roasting, instant coffee, capsules and packaging. Safaricom Dividend Boost: Safaricom Ethiopia’s parent started paying a record Sh46.08bn final dividend early, lifting total payout to Sh80.13bn as profits rose on stronger M-Pesa earnings. Tourism Recognition: Anbessa Travel won Ethiopia’s Leading Destination Management Company 2026 at the World Travel Awards Africa Gala in Zanzibar. Digital Health Procurement Shift: East Africa is moving from digital health pilots to broader rollout, with AI diagnostics, telemedicine and hospital systems increasingly on procurement agendas. Cybersecurity Warning: Iranian-linked hackers are using fake recruiter coding tests to deliver malware to developers across Egypt, Ethiopia and beyond. IFC Eyes Ethiopia Reforms: IFC Managing Director Makhtar Diop will visit Ethiopia to discuss how the World Bank Group’s next 10-year partnership framework supports jobs, private investment and growth. Refugee Service Reform: Ethiopia’s deputy PM says major institutional reforms at the Refugee and Returnee Service are improving culture, service quality and livelihoods for refugees. Health Financing Skills: A UN ECA workshop in Ethiopia trains health ministries and statisticians to frame health spending as investment using social accounting matrices.

Repatriation & Migration: Ethiopia repatriated nearly 100,000 nationals from abroad in the past 12 months, with 2,463 undocumented Ethiopians returned from Saudi Arabia last week and placed in temporary support facilities before rehabilitation and family reunions. Red Sea & Water Diplomacy: Former Ethiopian water minister Shiferaw Jarso says Egypt is plotting to cut Ethiopia off from Red Sea access, while a former GERD negotiator argues Egypt’s downstream reservoirs lose about 15–16 billion cubic meters annually to evaporation and that upstream storage in Ethiopia’s highlands could reduce those losses. Mining & Governance: Kefi Gold and Copper, developing the Tulu Kapi project in Ethiopia, reshaped its board for the next stage by appointing Danny Callow as an independent non-executive director and outlining committee leadership. Trade & Connectivity: Ethiopian Airlines launched a Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter route to boost China–Africa cargo links. Health Supply Chain: Ethiopia’s Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service (EPSS) won a Gold Award for supply-chain performance and procurement reforms, citing digital transformation and ERP use. Finance & Consumer Protection: The National Bank of Ethiopia invited bids to build a Financial Services Price Comparator Tool to improve transparency and help consumers compare pricing across providers.

Ethiopia–China Trade: Ethiopian Airlines launched a direct Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter route, using Boeing 777F aircraft to move cargo into a network spanning 54 African countries, aiming to boost Southwest China–Africa trade. Aviation & FX: Binani Air partners for an Abuja MRO facility targeting about $218m in annual foreign-exchange retention, highlighting how airlines in the region (including Ethiopia) rely on overseas heavy maintenance. Health Supply Chain: Ethiopia’s Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service (EPSS) won a Gold Award at the Africa Supply Chain Excellence Awards for procurement and supply-chain reforms, including digital transformation and ERP use. Migration & Social Support: Ethiopia repatriated nearly 100,000 nationals from abroad in the past year, with the latest round bringing back almost 98,900 people and thousands from Saudi Arabia, alongside plans for temporary support and family reunification. TVET & Skills: YES-PACT progress reports say Ethiopia has moved TVET reforms into implementation, with renewed focus on digitalisation and AI-linked coordination. Climate Risk Planning: IGAD’s October–December rainfall outlook flags higher-than-normal rains for parts of Ethiopia, with implications for agriculture, water, food security, health and infrastructure. US–Africa Commercial Diplomacy: US Assistant Secretary Frank Garcia’s tour includes Zambia, Ethiopia and Kenya, signaling a “trade over aid” agenda tied to investment and mining and health cooperation.

Bilateral Trade & Investment: Ethiopia’s week in Addis Ababa stayed busy, with the country hosting the WHO Regional Committee for Africa (RC76) and pushing its long-term development agenda around the Abay River and sea access, while Thailand also moved to deepen ties via high-level political consultations and an MoU. Digital Economy: Kenya, Ethiopia and Zimbabwe are all in the digital ID and payments spotlight—Kenya is working on secure national authentication, Ethiopia is exploring digital ID’s GDP upside, and Zimbabwe is tackling cyber risks. Agri-Business & Trade Fairs: India’s Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC 2026) is drawing 3,317 overseas buyers from 138 countries, with Ethiopia among the registered markets (127 buyers), signaling fresh export routes. Energy & Infrastructure: Ethiopian Electric Power says compensation disputes are tying up over seven billion birr and slowing grid expansion due to legal and procedural gaps. Value Chains & Jobs: Ethiopia’s bamboo sector is turning forests into furniture and construction inputs while creating rural green jobs, and beeswax is gaining traction as a higher-value domestic input for soap, cosmetics and pharma. Sports & Tourism: Kenya and Ethiopia dominated the 42km elite races at the Enugu City International Marathon, reinforcing regional sports tourism.

Energy & Grid Bottlenecks: Ethiopian Electric Power says compensation disputes are tying up over 7bn birr, with legal and procedural gaps under a revised expropriation framework slowing electrification and grid expansion. Diplomacy for Trade: Thailand’s Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow says Addis Ababa is a bridge to Africa and Ethiopia-Thailand will deepen ties via a new MoU for regular high-level political consultations. Sea Access & Regional Realism: Thailand also backs Ethiopia’s sea-access push as a legitimate trade and investment need, while broader Horn-of-Africa maritime security dynamics keep reshaping policy priorities. Tax Enforcement Push: Ethiopia’s Ministry of Revenues is installing HD surveillance cameras in excise-duty manufacturing sites to curb under-reporting and evasion, with 300m birr allocated. Currency Pressure: Ethiopia’s birr remains under strain as hard-currency demand rises; the central bank’s interventions have not stopped the slide toward record lows. Business Climate & Investment Pitch: A Thai advisor highlights Ethiopia’s young workforce, low electricity costs, and resource base as reasons to expand Thai investment and industrial partnerships. Health Systems Focus: Ethiopia’s role in regional health planning continues, with African health ministers adopting 10-year strategies on financing, workforce and regulation in Addis Ababa. Agribusiness Value Addition: Ethiopia’s beeswax is gaining traction as a higher-value export and domestic input for soap, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals. Regional Business & Finance: Safaricom Ethiopia’s governance expands as Berhane Demissie joins the Global Partnership for Ethiopia board.

Maritime Strategy & Red Sea Security: Ethiopia is pushing for a National Maritime Information Centre as officials meet in Nairobi with Yemen, Djibouti and Somalia to strengthen Red Sea and Gulf of Aden law enforcement, while broader Horn-of-Africa realignment links maritime access, water politics and regional power shifts. Sea Access Diplomacy: Thailand’s deputy PM says Ethiopia’s Red Sea access is a legitimate quest needing regional understanding, as Ethiopia frames itself as a “geographical prisoner” that must change. Tax Enforcement Tech: Ethiopia’s Ministry of Revenues is installing HD surveillance cameras in excise-duty factories like breweries and bottling plants to curb tax evasion, with about 300m birr allocated. Remittance Crackdown: The National Bank of Ethiopia warns the public against unlicensed hawala and money transfer operators, naming multiple Somali-linked services not authorized to handle Ethiopia-bound remittances. Trade & Logistics: Ethiopian Airlines launched a direct Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter route, aiming to boost cargo links between Southwest China and Africa. Business & Health Policy: Ethiopia and Thailand agreed to deepen business ties via a B2B bridge forum, while WHO’s Africa health ministers in Addis Ababa adopted 10-year strategies on health financing, workforce and regulation.

Beeswax Boom: Ethiopia’s beekeepers are turning overlooked beeswax into a fast-growing income stream as domestic demand rises for soap, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, with prices reportedly jumping from 200–300 birr/kg to over 1,500 birr/kg for quality wax. Air Cargo Expansion: Ethiopian Airlines launched a direct Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter route, starting twice weekly and set to grow, boosting trade links between Southwest China and Africa via Addis Ababa’s hub. Maritime Security & Trade: Ethiopia is pushing for a National Maritime Information Centre after regional talks in Nairobi with Somalia, Yemen and Djibouti to improve information-sharing and protect the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden corridor. Monetary/Forecasting Overhaul: The IMF will replace Ethiopia’s macro forecasting model by September 2026 with a new adaptive framework to better manage transitions like the floating exchange rate and debt sustainability. Health Systems Push: At WHO’s RC76 in Addis Ababa, Africa adopted 10-year strategies including adding 3 million health workers by 2035, while Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative was highlighted for climate and health co-benefits. Remittance Crackdown: Ethiopia’s central bank warned the public against unlicensed hawala and remittance operators, naming multiple Somali-linked services and warning of losses and legal action. AU Budget Move: Ethiopia agreed to nearly double its annual African Union contribution by upgrading to Tier-One status for the 2027–2029 cycle. Education Reality Check: Grade 12 results show a small improvement in pass rates, but commentary stresses the broader secondary learning crisis remains severe. AfCFTA Implementation Gap: Ethiopia’s tariff schedules are still not fully published across all goods categories, reflecting wider AfCFTA rollout delays. Power Project Funding: Koysha Hydroelectric Project needs about €500m more to finish, with GERD already supplying over half of Ethiopia’s electricity. Business Diplomacy: Ethiopia and Thailand held a B2B bridge forum in Addis Ababa to deepen trade, investment and practical company matchmaking.

Remittance Crackdown: Ethiopia’s National Bank warns the public against using unlicensed Somali-linked hawala and money transfer agents, listing dozens of operators it says are not authorized—warning of losses, delays, account restrictions and possible legal action. IMF Forecast Overhaul: The IMF will replace Ethiopia’s macroeconomic forecasting model by September 2026, rolling out a new dynamic framework tailored to Ethiopia’s exchange-rate and debt-sustainability realities. Power Pipeline Update: Koysha Hydroelectric Project needs an extra €500m to finish; GERD already supplies 52% of Ethiopia’s power, while Koysha is 77% complete with completion targeted for 2027 and full operations in 2029. Trade Rules Lag: Ethiopia’s AfCFTA progress shows implementation gaps: only 16 African countries have full tariff schedules for all goods categories, while Ethiopia is among those that submitted and passed technical review—yet schedules and publication remain uneven. AU Budget Boost: Ethiopia will nearly double its annual African Union contribution to about $15m by upgrading to Tier-One status, starting the 2027–2029 assessment cycle. Red Sea Security Cooperation: Ethiopia proposes a National Maritime Information Centre as regional officials from Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen and Djibouti meet in Nairobi to strengthen information-sharing and maritime law enforcement in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Education Reality Check: Grade 12 results show a 12.8% pass rate, but coverage stresses it’s not a recovery—most students still fail, pointing to deeper structural problems in secondary education. AFCON 2028 Bid: Ethiopia submits its final bid to host the 2028 Africa Cup of Nations, competing against a joint bid from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Botswana, with CAF inspections ahead.

Logistics & Trade: The World Bank says Ethiopia’s Mojo Dry Port shows how cutting border delays, payment frictions and transport costs can help Africa move from raw-material exports to higher-value intra-regional trade. Health Policy: WHO’s Africa health ministers opened RC76 in Addis Ababa, spotlighting stronger regulation, local manufacturing and sustainable financing for Universal Health Coverage. Digital Finance: New assessments say Ethiopia’s Fayda digital ID is boosting financial inclusion by enabling phone-based banking and lowering eKYC onboarding costs. Air Cargo: Ethiopian Airlines launched a Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter route, adding a direct corridor for time-sensitive trade between western China and Africa. Regional Cooperation: Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Angola and Tanzania signed an MoU to strengthen cross-border disease prevention, health data sharing and medical supply coordination. Energy & Security: Ethiopia and Thailand agreed to deepen trade and investment ties as Red Sea maritime security cooperation discussions push for better intelligence sharing. BRICS Watch: India will host the 18th BRICS summit on Sept 12–13, with Ethiopia among invited members.

Telecom Retail Expansion: Safaricom Ethiopia opened its first Premium Shop in Mekanisa, bundling mobile, broadband, device sales and enterprise services, with more flagship locations planned. Boardroom & Investment Signals: Safaricom Ethiopia also named Berhane Demissie to its advisory board, adding a second Ethiopian voice to the GPE-backed push to expand digital infrastructure and financial inclusion. Public Health & Policy: Ethiopia’s health diplomacy and global health spotlight continues as WHO’s Africa Regional Committee meetings in Addis Ababa intensify the race for WHO leadership support. Agribusiness & Exports: Gamo South in Ethiopia is scaling banana production, with 75,000 hectares under cultivation and a push toward higher productivity and export market access. Urban Environment Risk: A new risk assessment flags Addis Ababa’s Repi open dumpsite as a major water pollution threat, ranking hazards to informal waste pickers and downstream rivers/groundwater. Regional Diplomacy: Thailand’s deputy PM and foreign minister arrived in Addis Ababa for talks aimed at deepening Ethiopia–Thailand political and economic cooperation. Infrastructure Reality Check: South Sudan’s VP Taban Deng admitted severe road and energy gaps and urged East African support, including PPP models for key corridors. Global Finance Watch: BRICS is probing potential monopolies in global grain trading, targeting dominance by major grain traders.

Tigray Security: Ethiopia’s ENDF carried out drone strikes across Tigray, including around Mekele, as fighting resumes after the 2022 war. Water Diplomacy: Former Ethiopian water minister Shiferaw Jarso urged Ethiopia to press Egypt for compensation over Abay (Nile) water use, arguing Ethiopia contributes about 86% of the flow and hydropower dams don’t consume extra water. Regional Business: East African cement is seeing a cross-border expansion spree as three tycoons commit at least Sh133bn to acquisitions and new clinker plants across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. Telecom Governance: Safaricom Ethiopia added Berhane Demissie to its advisory board, while the Global Partnership for Ethiopia (GPE) board met to review milestones for digital infrastructure and financial inclusion. Youth & Skills: The AU opened a continental youth capacity-building programme on shared values instruments, with Ethiopia among participating countries. Health & Policy: Ethiopia’s investment-reform push was highlighted alongside broader growth plans, while antibiotic misuse risks antimicrobial resistance. Finance Outlook: The AU-backed APRM plans to launch a continent-wide credit ratings agency in October to help cut borrowing costs.

African Credit Ratings: The AU-backed African Peer Review Mechanism will launch a continent-wide credit ratings agency in Mauritius on October 5, aiming to cut Africa’s borrowing costs by offering local-currency sovereign assessments as an alternative to Fitch, Moody’s and S&P. Water & Economic Diplomacy: GWPO and partners launched an inaugural Global Ambassadors’ Forum for Water and Economic Diplomacy at World Water Week in Stockholm, pushing water investment and cross-border cooperation to close a major funding gap. Health Financing Push (Ethiopia-linked): Tanzania urged stronger domestic health financing and universal insurance enrolment, while WHO-AFRO discussions in Addis Ababa highlighted how debt servicing and out-of-pocket costs are crowding out care. East Africa Medical Tourism: East African health leaders in Addis Ababa discussed turning the region into a medical tourism hub through shared standards, cooperation, and easier cross-border patient movement. Ethiopia–UK Trade & Reform Talks: Ethiopia met the UK’s minister for international development to deepen cooperation on trade, investment, migration, peace and security, and climate action. BRICS Summit: India confirmed the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi for September 12–13, with leaders set to focus on resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability. Kenya Power Risk: Kenya’s electricity reserve margin has fallen to under 3.3%, raising blackout fears and increasing pressure on costly diesel generation. Digital Payments & Gaming: EBANX data says video gaming is the fastest-growing e-commerce vertical, with Ethiopia among the fastest-growing emerging markets by spend growth.

Ethiopia–UK Partnership: Addis Ababa met London to deepen cooperation on trade, investment, development, migration, peace and security, and climate action. Sea Access Economics: A parliament lawmaker said Ethiopia’s sea access push is an economic and legal necessity, citing UN findings on GDP losses for landlocked states and the heavy cost of routing most trade through a single port. Health Policy at WHO: Ethiopia’s health sector drew praise at the WHO Africa regional committee, while ministers reviewed four draft resolutions on workforce, early childhood development, and health financing. FX Market Update: Ethiopia’s National Bank reported a sharp fall in commercial bank participation in August FX auctions, with only five banks bidding at the Aug 26 session. Tigray Peace Risk: A coalition of 25 international partners warned that stalled Tigray talks and renewed hostilities could have catastrophic regional consequences. Investment Climate Signal: Ethiopia’s reforms and business environment were highlighted by the Chinese ambassador as attracting more Chinese investors. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Ethiopia’s role in the LAPSSET corridor and broader logistics connectivity stayed in focus as regional partners push for trade routes and infrastructure financing. Aviation Boost: Ethiopia’s Bishoftu International Airport was framed as a future Africa hub that could reduce passenger leakage and expand global connectivity. GERD Self-Reliance: Hailemariam Desalegn reiterated that GERD shows how African countries can mobilize domestic resources for development. Business Ties Beyond Africa: Brazil launched a Southern Africa business mission ending in Addis Ababa, while Indian apparel supplier Pearl Global weighs North Africa production to move closer to European buyers.