AGP Executive Report

Beeswax Boom: Ethiopia’s beekeepers are turning overlooked beeswax into a fast-growing income stream as domestic demand rises for soap, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, with prices reportedly jumping from 200–300 birr/kg to over 1,500 birr/kg for quality wax. Air Cargo Expansion: Ethiopian Airlines launched a direct Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter route, starting twice weekly and set to grow, boosting trade links between Southwest China and Africa via Addis Ababa’s hub. Maritime Security & Trade: Ethiopia is pushing for a National Maritime Information Centre after regional talks in Nairobi with Somalia, Yemen and Djibouti to improve information-sharing and protect the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden corridor. Monetary/Forecasting Overhaul: The IMF will replace Ethiopia’s macro forecasting model by September 2026 with a new adaptive framework to better manage transitions like the floating exchange rate and debt sustainability. Health Systems Push: At WHO’s RC76 in Addis Ababa, Africa adopted 10-year strategies including adding 3 million health workers by 2035, while Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative was highlighted for climate and health co-benefits. Remittance Crackdown: Ethiopia’s central bank warned the public against unlicensed hawala and remittance operators, naming multiple Somali-linked services and warning of losses and legal action. AU Budget Move: Ethiopia agreed to nearly double its annual African Union contribution by upgrading to Tier-One status for the 2027–2029 cycle. Education Reality Check: Grade 12 results show a small improvement in pass rates, but commentary stresses the broader secondary learning crisis remains severe. AfCFTA Implementation Gap: Ethiopia’s tariff schedules are still not fully published across all goods categories, reflecting wider AfCFTA rollout delays. Power Project Funding: Koysha Hydroelectric Project needs about €500m more to finish, with GERD already supplying over half of Ethiopia’s electricity. Business Diplomacy: Ethiopia and Thailand held a B2B bridge forum in Addis Ababa to deepen trade, investment and practical company matchmaking.

Remittance Crackdown: Ethiopia’s National Bank warns the public against using unlicensed Somali-linked hawala and money transfer agents, listing dozens of operators it says are not authorized—warning of losses, delays, account restrictions and possible legal action. IMF Forecast Overhaul: The IMF will replace Ethiopia’s macroeconomic forecasting model by September 2026, rolling out a new dynamic framework tailored to Ethiopia’s exchange-rate and debt-sustainability realities. Power Pipeline Update: Koysha Hydroelectric Project needs an extra €500m to finish; GERD already supplies 52% of Ethiopia’s power, while Koysha is 77% complete with completion targeted for 2027 and full operations in 2029. Trade Rules Lag: Ethiopia’s AfCFTA progress shows implementation gaps: only 16 African countries have full tariff schedules for all goods categories, while Ethiopia is among those that submitted and passed technical review—yet schedules and publication remain uneven. AU Budget Boost: Ethiopia will nearly double its annual African Union contribution to about $15m by upgrading to Tier-One status, starting the 2027–2029 assessment cycle. Red Sea Security Cooperation: Ethiopia proposes a National Maritime Information Centre as regional officials from Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen and Djibouti meet in Nairobi to strengthen information-sharing and maritime law enforcement in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Education Reality Check: Grade 12 results show a 12.8% pass rate, but coverage stresses it’s not a recovery—most students still fail, pointing to deeper structural problems in secondary education. AFCON 2028 Bid: Ethiopia submits its final bid to host the 2028 Africa Cup of Nations, competing against a joint bid from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Botswana, with CAF inspections ahead.

Logistics & Trade: The World Bank says Ethiopia’s Mojo Dry Port shows how cutting border delays, payment frictions and transport costs can help Africa move from raw-material exports to higher-value intra-regional trade. Health Policy: WHO’s Africa health ministers opened RC76 in Addis Ababa, spotlighting stronger regulation, local manufacturing and sustainable financing for Universal Health Coverage. Digital Finance: New assessments say Ethiopia’s Fayda digital ID is boosting financial inclusion by enabling phone-based banking and lowering eKYC onboarding costs. Air Cargo: Ethiopian Airlines launched a Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter route, adding a direct corridor for time-sensitive trade between western China and Africa. Regional Cooperation: Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Angola and Tanzania signed an MoU to strengthen cross-border disease prevention, health data sharing and medical supply coordination. Energy & Security: Ethiopia and Thailand agreed to deepen trade and investment ties as Red Sea maritime security cooperation discussions push for better intelligence sharing. BRICS Watch: India will host the 18th BRICS summit on Sept 12–13, with Ethiopia among invited members.

Telecom Retail Expansion: Safaricom Ethiopia opened its first Premium Shop in Mekanisa, bundling mobile, broadband, device sales and enterprise services, with more flagship locations planned. Boardroom & Investment Signals: Safaricom Ethiopia also named Berhane Demissie to its advisory board, adding a second Ethiopian voice to the GPE-backed push to expand digital infrastructure and financial inclusion. Public Health & Policy: Ethiopia’s health diplomacy and global health spotlight continues as WHO’s Africa Regional Committee meetings in Addis Ababa intensify the race for WHO leadership support. Agribusiness & Exports: Gamo South in Ethiopia is scaling banana production, with 75,000 hectares under cultivation and a push toward higher productivity and export market access. Urban Environment Risk: A new risk assessment flags Addis Ababa’s Repi open dumpsite as a major water pollution threat, ranking hazards to informal waste pickers and downstream rivers/groundwater. Regional Diplomacy: Thailand’s deputy PM and foreign minister arrived in Addis Ababa for talks aimed at deepening Ethiopia–Thailand political and economic cooperation. Infrastructure Reality Check: South Sudan’s VP Taban Deng admitted severe road and energy gaps and urged East African support, including PPP models for key corridors. Global Finance Watch: BRICS is probing potential monopolies in global grain trading, targeting dominance by major grain traders.

Tigray Security: Ethiopia’s ENDF carried out drone strikes across Tigray, including around Mekele, as fighting resumes after the 2022 war. Water Diplomacy: Former Ethiopian water minister Shiferaw Jarso urged Ethiopia to press Egypt for compensation over Abay (Nile) water use, arguing Ethiopia contributes about 86% of the flow and hydropower dams don’t consume extra water. Regional Business: East African cement is seeing a cross-border expansion spree as three tycoons commit at least Sh133bn to acquisitions and new clinker plants across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. Telecom Governance: Safaricom Ethiopia added Berhane Demissie to its advisory board, while the Global Partnership for Ethiopia (GPE) board met to review milestones for digital infrastructure and financial inclusion. Youth & Skills: The AU opened a continental youth capacity-building programme on shared values instruments, with Ethiopia among participating countries. Health & Policy: Ethiopia’s investment-reform push was highlighted alongside broader growth plans, while antibiotic misuse risks antimicrobial resistance. Finance Outlook: The AU-backed APRM plans to launch a continent-wide credit ratings agency in October to help cut borrowing costs.

African Credit Ratings: The AU-backed African Peer Review Mechanism will launch a continent-wide credit ratings agency in Mauritius on October 5, aiming to cut Africa’s borrowing costs by offering local-currency sovereign assessments as an alternative to Fitch, Moody’s and S&P. Water & Economic Diplomacy: GWPO and partners launched an inaugural Global Ambassadors’ Forum for Water and Economic Diplomacy at World Water Week in Stockholm, pushing water investment and cross-border cooperation to close a major funding gap. Health Financing Push (Ethiopia-linked): Tanzania urged stronger domestic health financing and universal insurance enrolment, while WHO-AFRO discussions in Addis Ababa highlighted how debt servicing and out-of-pocket costs are crowding out care. East Africa Medical Tourism: East African health leaders in Addis Ababa discussed turning the region into a medical tourism hub through shared standards, cooperation, and easier cross-border patient movement. Ethiopia–UK Trade & Reform Talks: Ethiopia met the UK’s minister for international development to deepen cooperation on trade, investment, migration, peace and security, and climate action. BRICS Summit: India confirmed the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi for September 12–13, with leaders set to focus on resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability. Kenya Power Risk: Kenya’s electricity reserve margin has fallen to under 3.3%, raising blackout fears and increasing pressure on costly diesel generation. Digital Payments & Gaming: EBANX data says video gaming is the fastest-growing e-commerce vertical, with Ethiopia among the fastest-growing emerging markets by spend growth.

Ethiopia–UK Partnership: Addis Ababa met London to deepen cooperation on trade, investment, development, migration, peace and security, and climate action. Sea Access Economics: A parliament lawmaker said Ethiopia’s sea access push is an economic and legal necessity, citing UN findings on GDP losses for landlocked states and the heavy cost of routing most trade through a single port. Health Policy at WHO: Ethiopia’s health sector drew praise at the WHO Africa regional committee, while ministers reviewed four draft resolutions on workforce, early childhood development, and health financing. FX Market Update: Ethiopia’s National Bank reported a sharp fall in commercial bank participation in August FX auctions, with only five banks bidding at the Aug 26 session. Tigray Peace Risk: A coalition of 25 international partners warned that stalled Tigray talks and renewed hostilities could have catastrophic regional consequences. Investment Climate Signal: Ethiopia’s reforms and business environment were highlighted by the Chinese ambassador as attracting more Chinese investors. Regional Trade & Infrastructure: Ethiopia’s role in the LAPSSET corridor and broader logistics connectivity stayed in focus as regional partners push for trade routes and infrastructure financing. Aviation Boost: Ethiopia’s Bishoftu International Airport was framed as a future Africa hub that could reduce passenger leakage and expand global connectivity. GERD Self-Reliance: Hailemariam Desalegn reiterated that GERD shows how African countries can mobilize domestic resources for development. Business Ties Beyond Africa: Brazil launched a Southern Africa business mission ending in Addis Ababa, while Indian apparel supplier Pearl Global weighs North Africa production to move closer to European buyers.

Ebola Response: The WHO is urging a six-month humanitarian truce in eastern DRC to reach isolated communities and break Ebola transmission, saying tools exist but access is the main barrier. Health Sovereignty & Funding: WHO and AU leaders meeting in Addis Ababa warned Africa loses about $90bn yearly to illicit financial flows, pushing calls for health self-reliance and more investment in local capacity. Addis Ababa as a Health Hub: Ethiopia says it wants to turn the capital into an African healthcare hub, including specialized care, medical tourism, and expanded local production of medicines and diagnostics. Banana Export Push: Ethiopia is targeting global banana exports after a national conference flagged the gap between high output and export-quality fruit, with new focus on productivity, finance, and market access. Nile Water Politics: A hydro-politics scholar told ENA Ethiopia will develop its Nile (Abay) resources without waiting for Egypt’s permission, while cooperation remains possible. East Africa Oil Rivalry: Kenya and Tanzania are competing for regional energy control as Dangote’s Lamu refinery plans gather partners, while Uganda and Tanzania back a Tanga energy hub. IMF Reform Pressure: The IMF urged Nigeria and other AU large economies to deepen fiscal, monetary, and governance reforms to stabilize growth. Ethiopia Digital Payments: Fayda digital ID is nearing 50m enrollments, with adoption linked to reshaping Ethiopia’s economy and enabling more services.

Ethiopia’s Health Push: Ethiopia says it wants Addis Ababa to become an African healthcare hub, including specialised care, medical tourism, and expanded local production of pharmaceuticals and medical tools, with public-private partnerships and regional cooperation at the core. Health Sovereignty Agenda: WHO and African Union leaders meeting in Addis Ababa urged African-led health sovereignty to cut dependence on external financing, while Ethiopia’s President Taye Atske Selassie called for African ownership, integration, and measurable action in the next health agenda. Regional Health Financing: Tanzania targets universal enrolment in its Universal Health Insurance Scheme by 2028/29, with poor households covered by government, as ministers discuss sustainable health financing. Trade & Industry Signals: Indian fashion supplier Pearl Global is evaluating North Africa manufacturing partnerships, while Ethiopia’s bid to host AFCON 2028 moves forward after submitting required CAF documents. Agriculture Risk Insurance: EIB Global and WFP expand climate-risk insurance for Ethiopian smallholder farmers, using a grant to de-risk rural lending and help manage climate shocks. Transport & Safety: Ethiopia reported a deadly Addis Ababa accident after an excavator bucket collapsed onto a minibus taxi, killing at least six. Energy & Climate Shock Watch: El Niño warnings intensify for Ethiopia’s agriculture, with calls for early preparation.

BRICS Climate Backing: BRICS environment and climate ministers endorsed Ethiopia’s COP32 presidency, praising the Green Legacy Initiative and plans on forest development, land restoration, the circular economy and climate adaptation. Local Health Manufacturing: Ethiopia’s health minister said locally made medicines and health products’ domestic market share jumped from 8% to 44%, alongside gains in maternal and under-five mortality and wider primary healthcare coverage. Regulatory Health Systems: Mozambique reached WHO’s ML3 for regulating medicines and imported vaccines, joining Ethiopia and other African countries—an upgrade aimed at improving quality, safety and timely access. Health as Economic Investment: ECA urged Africa to treat health spending as productive economic investment, warning of financing gaps, high out-of-pocket costs and weak budget execution. Trade Push with China: China and Ethiopia signed 33 trade and cooperation agreements worth $330m+ to boost Ethiopian exports; exports to China hit $369m in 2025/26. Digital ID Rollout: Ethiopia’s Fayda digital ID hit 49.1m enrollments, with 150 agencies integrated and 194m eKYC verifications, targeting a bigger formal economy. Youth & Tech Agenda: Ethiopia urged BRICS to fund youth enterprises and scale digital and green technologies, citing youth as a key growth driver. SME Financing Focus: A BRICS SME financing discussion highlighted case-study insights on unlocking credit for small businesses across member economies. Weather Risk in the Region: Kenya’s climate outlook forum warned up to 1.5m people could be affected by heavy OND rains, underscoring the need to turn forecasts into action. Foreign Aid Fraud Watch: US watchdog findings flagged major failures and alleged fraud across foreign-aid programs as Trump reshapes USAID.

Digital ID Rollout: Ethiopia’s Fayda national digital ID has hit 49.1 million enrollments, with 12,000 biometric kits deployed and 150 agencies integrated, as eKYC verifications pass 194 million—positioned to boost formal finance and support the Digital Ethiopia 2030 agenda. Youth & Innovation Finance: Ethiopia urged BRICS youth ministers to set up dedicated funding for youth enterprises and scale investment in digital and green technologies, citing that over 70% of Ethiopians are under 30. Health Research Gap: AKUH warns Africa carries 25% of the global disease burden but contributes under 4% to clinical trials, calling for stronger local research, manufacturing, and health financing to reduce dependency. Agriculture Lessons: AU officials say Ethiopia’s smallholder-focused food system transformation offers a model for self-sufficiency—covering the whole chain from production to consumption. Biometrics & Fraud Risk: An Incode CEO says AI agent fraud is growing fast, often targeting channels without verification layers—raising the stakes for identity systems. Malaria Resistance: Researchers report malaria parasites with drug-resistance and diagnostic-escape markers are increasingly prevalent across Ethiopia amid a sharp resurgence in cases. Education Business: ADvTECH posted a 16% earnings rise to R717m for the first half of 2026, driven by higher enrolments and improved margins. Oil Refinery Stakes: Dangote’s planned Lamu refinery offer includes a 30% stake for East African governments, with Ethiopia among those showing interest.

Ethiopia’s National Dialogue: Ethiopia’s 40-day National Dialogue Conference has wrapped up with nearly 4,000 participants feeding about 400 recommendations, as speakers said the process is meant to strengthen nation-building through dialogue and shared priorities. BRICS Tourism Push: Ethiopia is calling for stronger BRICS cooperation in tourism, proposing a BRICS Travel Mart and a Tourism Centre of Excellence, with Addis Ababa positioned as a meetings hub and the Jaipur Declaration adopted by consensus. Regional Health Agenda: East African leaders meeting in Addis Ababa urged stronger regional health systems, harmonized regulations, and more local medicine and medical-supply production to improve resilience to future outbreaks. Agriculture Under El Niño Risk: Global forecasts warn a potentially record El Niño could hit Ethiopia’s agriculture with severe weather impacts, while drought-driven food price pressure is already being felt across the region. Solar Irrigation for Farmers: Farm Africa reports Ethiopian farmers are cutting costs and emissions by switching to solar-powered irrigation pumps, reducing reliance on expensive diesel and improving output around Addis Ababa and central Ethiopia. Trade and Finance Watch: Afreximbank says its first-half 2026 net income rose 30% to $534.7m as lending and trade-related activity expanded across Africa and the Caribbean. Jobs and Energy Projects: In East Africa, communities are pushing for job guarantees tied to major refinery plans, including demands that local residents get a large share of construction and operating roles.

El Niño Watch: Global forecasts warn a potentially “Super El Niño” could peak in late 2026 to early 2027, with severe drought and storms likely to hit vulnerable economies and food systems; the UN is already mobilizing a $202m appeal for high-risk countries. Food Security Pressure: Drought-linked supply tightness is pushing up staple prices, raising household food risk across the region. BRICS Sports & Tourism Push: BRICS sports ministers in Visakhapatnam adopted a joint declaration calling for athlete exchanges, sports science and manufacturing cooperation; Ethiopia also urged stronger BRICS tourism ties in Jaipur, proposing a BRICS Travel Mart and a Tourism Centre of Excellence. Ethiopia’s National Dialogue: Ethiopia’s 40-day national dialogue concluded with nearly 4,000 participants feeding about 400 recommendations, while leaders stressed nation-building and a renewed push for dialogue-based stability. Trade & FX Reform Signals: Ethiopia is stepping up efforts to narrow its China trade gap via duty-free access and export drives, while the FX auction system continues to show heavy demand versus limited dollar supply. Regional Security Risk: Reports warn renewed fighting could flare in Ethiopia’s north, threatening hard-won stability and economic activity. Dangote Refinery Stakes: Aliko Dangote offered Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda a combined 30% equity stake in a planned Lamu refinery, potentially reshaping East Africa’s fuel market.

Tigray Conflict Watch: Drone strike hits Mekelle as fears of renewed war rise, with analysts warning the next phase could be more complex given shifting regional alignments. FX Market Reform: Ethiopia’s foreign-exchange auction turns two, but regular bids still far exceed dollars offered, keeping pressure on the birr and importers’ access. Trade & Exports: Ethiopia targets a narrower China trade gap via duty-free access, domestic reforms and export drives; a forum in Addis saw deals worth $330m across coffee, oilseeds, pulses, leather and textiles. Regional Trade Flows: Kenya’s informal exports keep leaning toward Ethiopia, which captured 54% of unrecorded outbound goods in the June 2025 survey cycle. Banking Accountability: Prosecutors charge seven over alleged Amhara Bank credit-control workarounds tied to one borrower, raising scrutiny of lending governance. Health Systems: MSF launches primary and secondary healthcare support in Oromia’s East and West Wollega, aiming to restore services in hard-to-reach areas. Aviation & Connectivity: Ethiopian Airlines expands to Kinshasa with daily midday flights from Dec 1, 2026, adding passenger and cargo capacity. Insurance Reform: Ethiopia’s draft insurance overhaul proposes an autonomous regulator, policyholder protection fund and specialised licences, reshaping competition.

US Court Ruling on Visas: A federal judge in New York struck down Trump’s blanket immigrant visa suspension for nationals of 75 countries, saying it was “contrary to law” and exceeded the Secretary of State’s authority, with the decision reversing denials that ignored case-by-case assessments—an issue that directly touched families including Ethiopians. Ethiopia’s Debt Relief Progress: Ethiopia cleared a key hurdle toward eurobond restructuring as the Official Creditor Committee approved that a June 2026 agreement with private bondholders meets the G20 “Comparability of Treatment” rule, moving the country closer to broader debt stabilization under an IMF program. Dangote Refinery Deal for East Africa: Dangote offered Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda a combined 30% equity stake in a planned Kenya refinery, with Kenya’s potential 10% valued around $500m and September groundbreaking expected. El Niño Risks for Ethiopia: Regional food-security reporting warns El Niño could bring below-average rainfall in parts of Ethiopia while raising flood risks in eastern and southern areas later in the year, threatening crops and food availability. Ethiopian Airlines Expansion: Ethiopian Airlines announced daily midday flights to Kinshasa from December 1, 2026, boosting its DRC network to 21 weekly flights. National Dialogue Wrap-Up: Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Conference concluded after 40 days, with leaders calling the process a foundation for resolving differences through dialogue and producing about 400 recommendations.

National Dialogue Wrap-Up: Ethiopia’s month-long National Dialogue Conference ends in Addis Ababa after 40 days, delivering about 400 recommendations across governance, institutions, Addis Ababa/Dire Dawa, reconciliation, socio-economic issues, corruption, and peacebuilding. Energy & Investment: Dangote’s planned East African refinery in Kenya is drawing regional interest after an offer of a combined 30% equity stake—Kenya 10% (~$500m), with Ethiopia and Rwanda also reportedly interested—while groundbreaking is expected in September. Debt & Markets: Ethiopia’s Official Creditor Committee says a June 2026 “agreement in principle” with private bondholders meets the G20 comparability principle, easing fears of legal action and supporting Eurobond restructuring progress. Banking Oversight: The National Bank of Ethiopia rejects Global Bank’s nominee for acting president over licensing and experience requirements, pushing the bank to propose another candidate. Climate & Agriculture Risk: New regional reporting warns El Niño-linked rainfall deficits and flood risks could hit eastern and western Ethiopia differently, with food security and nutrition pressures likely to persist into early 2027. Digital Economy: PM Abiy says Ethiopia’s Fayda digital ID system could lift GDP by 7%, with tens of millions already registered and integration into public and private institutions underway. Insurance Reform Push: Insurers warn Ethiopia’s low insurance penetration and weak distribution—especially for agricultural coverage—requires structural reform and more digital partnerships.